The 2026 Forecast

We’re only ten days into 2026, but the fashion industry is already in high gear. Red carpet season kicks off with the Golden Globes tonight, and Pitti Uomo 2026 begins this Tuesday, January 13th. While a new season usually promises fresh ideas and evolving trends, the “Great Reset” of 2025 felt more like hype than the change the industry truly needed. So, what will this year bring for both the fashion and beauty industries? Here are my five predictions for the shifts that will define 2026:

1.     Markets Bifurcation Will Accelerate

Whether we’re talking beauty or fashion, the gap between price and perceived quality is forcing a permanent split in these industries. Today’s consumers are savvy; if the ingredients or materials, craftsmanship, and “unboxing” experience don’t justify the markup, the sheer volume of brands in the marketplace means they will not hesitate to trade down. Expect the dupe economy and high-end resale to continue to thrive.

2.     A "Product-First" Renaissance

My personal philosophy has always been that product comes first, and after a year marred by quality, pricing, and labor scandals, that belief is stronger than ever. This year, I expect top fashion and luxury brands will finally get the message from consumers: the product is the platform. Aside from Hermès—which remains the gold standard in luxury product and brand building—I expect brands to fully turn their focus back to design, functionality, and material integrity (in other words, craftsmanship). In beauty, which has seen so many brands enter the market without much differentiation, that means product performance and messaging should be top of mind to encourage customer loyalty. For luxury houses, it means tightening supply chains to recapture the magic that justifies a High-Net-Worth (HNW) investment. In 2026, if you aren't obsessed with the object itself, your brand will struggle.

3.     American Department Stores Hit "Red Alert"
The warning lights have been flashing for years, but 2026 is the year department stores hit the "Severe" level. I said this to people at least a decade ago, but it’s finally now being realized: With fashion and luxury brands pushing customers to their own boutiques and e-commerce sites that feature their full collections and special product drops, why would a customer shop a department store edit?

I predict the Saks bankruptcy will result in the company having to sell off both real estate assets and Bergdorf Goodman to survive in any meaningful way. Over at Nordstrom, we will see it continue to struggle to connect with audiences, which is why it must rediscover its legendary service and unique assortments.

Other things the department store sector needs to do? Their latest focus is the all-important customer experience, but more is needed for them to stay relevant: Get back to being trend and brand leaders through discovering new talent and bringing in brands that are not easily accessible in the U.S., sharpen their category assortments, improve sales associate product and brand knowledge, refine customer interactions, and rethink store design. And for investors interested in actually building something and not just extracting assets from a company, the American department store space is ripe for reinvention and a Barney’s style entry would be more than welcome into what is a depressingly stale market tier.

4.     Indie Brands: Brand Equity Over Quick Profit
For independent and emerging designers, 2026 is about the long game. Brands that take a product-first philosophy, prioritize differentiated narratives, engage global customers in unique brand experiences, and partner selectively with wholesale channels that build reputation rather than just move units will be rewarded. It’s a daunting "to-do" list for indie brands that are already short on cash and people power, but building brand equity for the long-term is the only way to survive a volatile market.

5.     The "AI Slump" Will Claim Victims

The era of lazy AI utilization is over. Businesses attempting to build brands on generic prompts from ChatGPT or Gemini will see their brand equity erode. Without a distinct human vision and a deep understanding of brand DNA, AI-generated copy and design result in a "race to the bottom." In 2026, AI should be the engine, but never the driver.

Image of Saks Fifth Avenue in New York courtesy of Maria Kray / Shutterstock.